AI's Impact on Jobs: A Tale of Two Workforces
AI is transforming hiring trends, but not everyone is benefiting equally. Recent payroll insights from Gusto reveal a fascinating paradox: AI is linked to increased hiring, yet the growth seems biased towards older, more seasoned professionals, leaving younger workers in the lurch.
But first, let's understand how Gusto measured AI exposure. They employed a clever method devised by OpenAI and University of Pennsylvania researchers. Each job is assigned an AI exposure score from 0% to 100%, indicating the potential for AI to accelerate its core tasks. This score is then averaged across a company's workforce, providing an overall AI exposure rating.
Here's where it gets intriguing: Gusto tracked 7,700 small businesses for nearly three years and discovered a correlation between AI exposure and revenue growth. For every 10% increase in AI exposure, there's a corresponding 2.2% monthly revenue boost six months later. But the hiring story is more nuanced. Businesses with higher AI exposure tend to have slightly more employees (1.6%) after six months. This suggests that some companies use AI-driven productivity gains to expand, while others may streamline their workforce.
And this is the part most people miss: the beneficiaries of these job gains are predominantly older workers in less AI-exposed roles. From 2023 to 2025, small business employment rose 9.6%, but in highly AI-exposed jobs like copywriting, accounting, and customer service, growth was a mere 3.4%. Even more striking, younger workers (aged 22-28) in these roles have experienced a decline in headcount, indicating a slowdown in hiring for this demographic.
The Gusto report aligns with other studies, implying that as AI takes over routine tasks, employers may prefer seasoned professionals who can leverage AI to drive business value. But does this mean AI is leaving younger workers behind? Is it creating a generational divide in the job market?
Controversial as it may sound, this data raises questions about the future of work and the role of AI in shaping employment opportunities for different age groups. What do you think? Are we witnessing a shift in hiring preferences, or is this a temporary phase in the AI revolution?
